Key Takeaways

  • U.S. short-term rental occupancy is now projected to reach 57.4 percent in 2026
  • New supply growth has slowed to 2.7 percent after years of rapid expansion
  • AirDNA expects RevPAR to rise 2.9 percent as nightly rate growth strengthens

The U.S. short-term rental market is entering the second half of 2026 on a positive note.

The market is seeing stronger occupancy, rising nightly rates and fewer new properties joining the competition, AirDNA says

National occupancy is expected to reach 57.4 percent this year, according to AirDNA’s 2026 Midyear Outlook.

That is slightly higher than the company’s original forecast of 56.7 percent and a little above pre-pandemic averages.

“At the beginning of the year, we expected lower borrowing costs to bring more new supply to market,” said Bram Gallagher, Director of Economics and Forecasting at AirDNA.

“Instead, renewed inflation driven by the war in Iran and the resulting energy shock pushed mortgage rates back above 6%, delaying investment. That slower supply growth, combined with healthy travel demand, has supported occupancy while creating stronger pricing conditions for established operators. As inflation eases, we expect demand and investment activity to strengthen further in 2027,” Gallagher added.

Revenue per available rental, or RevPAR, is projected to grow 2.9 percent for the year as average nightly rates continue to climb. Rate growth began at just 0.7 percent in January but accelerated to roughly 3 percent by the spring, giving the national market more pricing momentum than it carried into the year.

Slower supply growth reshapes the STR market

The biggest shift is happening on the supply side.

AirDNA now expects the number of available short-term rentals to grow just 2.7 percent in 2026, well below the double-digit expansion recorded during the pandemic-era boom in 2021 and 2022.

That slowdown means demand is no longer being spread across a rapidly expanding pool of listings. The tighter balance between supply and bookings is helping support occupancy and nightly rates across the country.

Related: Vacation rentals now outperform hotels on guest loyalty, study shows

The latest forecast marks an improvement from AirDNA’s original 2026 outlook, which called for softer occupancy and faster listing growth.

The company now expects occupancy to remain nearly unchanged at 57.5 percent in 2027, suggesting the market could settle into a more stable period after several years of sharp swings in supply, demand and pricing.

The second half of 2026 will show whether the recent increase in nightly rates continues as the summer travel season gives way to the fall and winter months.

According to the report, guest behavior is shifting toward value.

Folks seem to want more shorter trips, later bookings, and a continued pull toward larger homes that sleep groups, with five-plus-bedroom listings leading on both occupancy and rate.

Some specific market data the company shared included a 12.1 percent increase in San Francisco, 11 percent increase in Anaheim (+11.0%), and 10.1 percent jump in Philadelphia. All three cities have posted the strongest RevPAR growth so far this year, each in a market where supply has tightened, while the strongest supply growth is expected in more affordable small-city, rural, and mid-size markets, offering a lower cost of entry for investors.

“National averages only tell part of the story,” said Rohit Bezewada, CEO of AirDNA. “The operators and investors who succeed this year are the ones working from granular, market-level data, and that’s what AirDNA is built to deliver.”

On the international side of the house, Canada and Western Europe remain well below 2024 levels, while Latin American travelers, led by Argentina and Brazil, continue to grow, AirDNA says.

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